Views of a Nepali Economist

The following opinion piece was published in Republica on September 15, 2015. The direct link to Republica is here.


There are signs that once again—as happened during previous Madhesh uprisings—grievance against the state in the Tarai is starting to turn into communal conflict. The current conflict is between dissatisfied Madheshi groups and state security apparatus. However, there are signs that dissatisfied Madheshi groups will soon be locked in confrontation with the group they view as bourgeois—the hill people living in the plains.

Of course, the Tarai-based leaderships refuse to acknowledge this. I have met people and heard their stories about how they suffered when the first Madhesh Uprising morphed into communal violence against hill people in the Tarai, most notably in Janakpur and surrounding areas. However, Madheshi leaders spearheading current demonstrations argue that as during the Maoist conflict—when grievances of mostly hill Janajatis (although the Maoist movement had significant support of Tarai-based groups, too) were brought to the fore—the current crisis in Tarai owes to a situation of Madheshis demanding that the state address their grievances.

However, the comparison is not accurate. The Maoists did not claim to be organizing peaceful demonstrations. They explicitly said theirs was an armed rebellion. Madheshi leadership in the Tarai today claim the current movement is peaceful, while the reality is different. Madheshi leaders need to understand that there is a difference between lawlessness and lawful disobedience. They are not the same.

Maoist insurgents had showdowns with state security forces, and both sides knew the other was armed. On the other hand, Madheshi leaders, to make their 'peaceful' demonstrations successful, got on the stage and asked their cadres to come armed with javelins, swords, and guns. Armed crowds attacked unarmed policemen trying to restore order. Unarmed policemen have been maimed and killed. After calling on their cadres to bring weapons and attack the police, Madheshi leaders have no moral right to say they did not anticipate killings of police personnel—as well as the subsequent police response. They are responsible for this mess. It is time for the Madheshi leadership to decide what it wants. Does it want a peaceful demonstration or an armed rebellion?

The answer to that question is critical because it allows the state to prepare and respond accordingly. Right now, the state has been preparing for peaceful demonstrations (taking Madheshi leaders at their word), but it is facing armed rebellion instead. If you are going to make it a fight, make it a fair fight.

Attacking unarmed off-duty policemen (as in Tikapur), dragging and killing unarmed and injured policemen from inside ambulances (as in Jaleshwor), and pouring petrol over unarmed policemen stationed in custom checkpoints with an intent to burn them alive (as in Biratnagar) are not signs of peaceful demonstrations. Ordering entire communities to send family members armed with weapons (as in Kailali) to a supposedly "peaceful rally" is not what legitimate political leaders do. Mobilizing and paying school children (as in Morang and Sunsari) to enforce shutdowns and instigating them to clash with the police are unbecoming of democratically elected leaders.

Ordering entire communities to not rent rooms to police and army personnel is the kind of thing you hear a Taliban leader do in Afghanistan. Asking people to go fight the police, become a martyr, and collect Rs 50 lakh is something that ISIS and Al Qaeda leaders ask of their suicide bombers. Is there no difference between a Madheshi political leader and an ISIS or an Al Qaeda or a Taliban leader? In the face of these developments, why is the Madheshi leadership surprised that the state has started to respond in kind, with bullets?

Our national leaders in government refuse to use the term "terrorism" to define what is happening in Tarai. Sushil Koirala and the current lot of old, white-haired political leaders in Nepali Congress and CPN-UML were called terrorists by Panchayat governments. The Maoist Party was labeled a terrorist organization by none other than the United States. That weight on their shoulders does not allow them to label current activities in Tarai as "terrorism." However, their inability to call a spade a spade does not mean it is not a spade. What has happened in the Tarai these past couple of weeks is terrorism, plain and simple.

Other groups—frustrated with the long general shutdown—have started to rise against the agitators in some places, like Mills Area in Biratnagar. This is sure to result in a clash of egos between those enforcing the shutdowns and those opposing it. If similar opposition catches fire everywhere, we are looking at many more dead bodies in our streets.

Many Madheshi leaders guiding the current uprising in Tarai were sore losers in the last CA election. Their losses reflected the constituents' loss of faith. However, their current role in inciting an armed aggression against the state and against other community members is a desperate attempt to hang on to past glories and stay relevant. This is not to say Madheshi demands are not valid. But the path of violence that their leaders have decided to take does not lead to redemption. It leads to a predictably sad end for everyone involved.

Labels: communal conflict, madhes, terrorism