Saturday, November 7, 2015
Commentary on the Indian media, political, and diplomatic failure in Nepal
Indian Failure
By: Mukesh Khanal
The current crisis has brought about an unflattering portrayal of the Indian media, political leadership, and diplomacy. The Indian media is chock-full of misinformation about Nepal. The political leadership is on its way to sacrificing centuries of fraternal relationship for what appears to be a short-term gain in Bihar elections, and lobbying on behalf of an ethnic movement in the neighborhood. And, seasoned Indian diplomats have come across as ‘crass’ in their diplomatic manoeuvers. In short, the current crisis has been a disaster for India.
The Indian media is busy portraying Nepal’s latest efforts to bring fuel from China as “Tibet-ization” of Nepal, and how this means a rise of Maoism in Nepal, which they claim is a threat to India. The Indian media fails to realize that Maoism had already risen in Nepal when the Maoists won the 2008 election. They also fail to realize that Nepal’s current negotiations with China to ease fuel supplies is purely driven by economics—the economics of scarcity as a result of the Indian blockade. When a neighbor that surrounds you from three sides refuses to send fuel to you, it is only logical to approach the neighbor that lives on the fourth side for help. Their inability to grasp this very simple concept of markets, demand, and supply is baffling. Their belief that Nepal trying to increase trade with China is somehow a signal of growing Maoism in Nepal is equally laughable. If they want to see signs of growing Maoism, they simply need to look within their own borders.
Nepal’s current negotiations with China is a sign that our leaders finally appear to have grown some sense—and some spine—and realize that India should not have a monopoly over our fuel supplies. However, our current negotiations with China only targets the fuel crisis, if at all. The other crises still remain. The blockade continues to cause a shortage in medical supplies. So, our hospitals, labs, and clinics are struggling to function. Our people were also denied an opportunity to gather with their loved ones during the Dashain holiday, especially after the horrors of the recent earthquakes. And, the winter is coming. The blockade will starve many earthquake-affected folks in the hills and mountains in coming days. They are being denied warm clothes, food, and shelter that they deserve after losing everything in the earthquakes.
The Indian media is also misinformed about the new Nepali constitution. They keep reporting that madheshis have been reduced to second-class citizens in Nepal. That is incorrect. Every Nepali citizen, including all madheshis, enjoys the same citizenship perks. The Indian media appears to be speaking up for “naturalized citizens”—such as Rajendra Mahato—who cannot hold top elected posts or top posts in the Nepali Army. However, they fail to realize that the naturalized citizenship limitations are the same in India as in Nepal—that they cannot hold the nation’s top posts. Their ignorance on the issue, again, is baffling.
Like the Indian media, India’s political leadership fails to realize that the blockade is not only hurting Nepalis, but is also hurting the Indian bottom-line. For example, in 2014/15, Nepal imported 290 million liters of petrol, 922 million liters of diesel, 20 million liters of kerosene, and enough LPG gas to fill 8.7 million cylinders. We paid India Rs 26.5 billion for petrol, Rs 65.5 billion for diesel, Rs 1 billion for kerosene, and Rs 12 billion for LPG gas. That is a total of Rs 105 billion in fuel for household consumption only. This figure does not include aviation fuel and electricity that we also import from India. Also, this figure does not account the fact that many Nepalis in border towns purchase fuels from across the border in India, where they are cheaper. Any fuel supply agreement that Nepal signs with China will mean the Rs 105 billion pie—that India currently has a monopoly on—will shrink.
China is also showing an interest in a power-sharing agreement with Nepal, and wants to support Nepal’s hydropower ambitions. It also wants to extend its railway line from Lhasa to Kathmandu—despite the challenging geography—at no costs to us. If those come to fruition, it will further dent India’s influence in Nepal and its bottom-line.
The bigger surprise during this blockade, however, has been the absence of common sense diplomacy from Indian diplomats. Unlike the Indian media, India’s seasoned diplomats are aware of the nuances at play in the current crisis. They understand Nepal well. Yet, Indian diplomatic response—as evidenced by Ranjit Rae’s blunt statement that the “unofficial” blockade would officially continue despite the developing Nepal-China fuel negotiations—has been very undiplomatic. Perhaps, the current Indian diplomatic arrogance is because they know us too well.
Indian government and diplomats, perhaps, believe that un-blockading Nepal now—with the Madhesh issue still unresolved, which was the excuse for initiating the blockade—would be akin to bending backwards to satisfy Nepal. However, they fail to realize that the same applies to Nepali leadership. Nepali government’s current dillydallying about meeting and engaging with Madheshi leaders could be because they fear that doing so would appear to appease India. And, in the current blockade climate—when anti-India sentiments have risen among Nepalis—the last thing any Nepali politician wants to do is to appear appeasing India. India needs to realize that un-blockading and resumption of normal India-Nepal relations is first needed to make it easier for Nepali government to engage Madhesh leaders.
India has failed to play the situation well, and has made a mess. As a result, there is growing anti-India sentiments in the current population, especially the youth. Many of today’s Nepali youth will eventually run the country in the future. However, an entire generation of today’s Nepali youth will carry this memory forward, and will find it difficult to trust India in the future. India’s blunder of trying to drive our political process—like the recent forced candidacy of Sushil Koirala for Prime Minister—has resulted in the election of hardline nationalists in the government, election of a supposedly pro-China politician as the Prime Minister, and a thoroughly discredited Nepali Congress and Madheshi Morcha leadership. This last factor was further costly. It resulted in the election of UML and Maoist-backed candidates in all top posts—President, Vice-President, House Speaker, and House Deputy Speaker. To say that India’s interventions were completely nullified by a raging Nepal is an understatement.
These past few weeks have, therefore, been a disaster for Indian foreign policy. India has come across as a regional bully. There is much that the Indian media, politicians, and diplomats can learn from their failure. However, everything is still not lost. India and Nepal still share an exceptional fraternal, cultural, and historic relationship. And, broken relationships can always be restored. India has to get off the high horse, and engage in common sense diplomacy.
Labels: blockade
Wednesday, November 4, 2015
The blockade politics of India in Nepal
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The following opinion piece was published in Republica on October 28, 2015 with the title "Disturbing Silence." The direct link to the piece is here.
Blockade on Germany—from 1914 to 1919—by Britain and France during the First World War brought Germany down to its knees. In 1962, the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the United States suddenly got hot when the Soviets decided to install nuclear missiles in Cuba, only 90 miles off the US. So, the US blockaded the Cuban coast to prevent the Soviets from reaching Cuba.
These examples show that, in foreign policy, a blockade is a wartime tool. Nepal and India are not at war, and neither is a threat to the other. If India continues the blockade, it will definitely bring Nepal down to its knees. Nobody doubts that. But, why is India using a wartime tactic against Nepal? More importantly, whatever the intended results, does India truly believe that the means justifies the end?
A "blockade" is a very effective tool to instigate suffering, and no country knows this better than Germany, which suffered one of the worst cases of an economic blockade in human history. After the Allies beat Germany in WWI, Britain and France wanted Germany to sign the Treaty of Versailles for immediate peace. To pressure Germany into signing the agreement quickly, the British and the French continued the blockade that they had been imposing on Germany since 1914. Although the war officially ended in November 1918, the blockade continued for eight more months, until July 1919.
Aimed at punishing the national level policymakers, the blockade hurt civilians the most. Germans suffered from malnourishment, rickets, scurvy, tuberculosis, and several other illnesses. The British intelligence reported that in the year 1917, hunger-related typhus was responsible for almost 75 percent of deaths in the city of Dortmund alone. More people died in Germany in the flu epidemic of 1918 than in any other European country. In 1919, reports came out that 10 percent of patients in German hospitals died that year simply because the hospitals could not feed the patients.
Famine during the extra eight months of blockade alone killed 250,000 Germans. The government's rationing system fell apart. So, urban populations suffered from chronic hunger due to unequal rationing of food. Rural self-sufficient farmers fared better than urban citizens. In the urban centers, black markets developed to sell food and essential items at exorbitant prices. Dairy prices were 33 percent higher than the market price, meat's was 50 percent higher, and eggs and fruit's were 1,000 percent higher. While the wealthy and the well-connected in Germany managed to feed themselves, the black market prices killed the urban poor.
The current Indian blockade of Nepal has now reached a point where health-related crises have started. For example, this month, hospitals in Jhapa stopped providing dialysis services to patients due to medicine and equipment shortages, and ICU/NICU services have not operated smoothly due to fuel shortage. Recently, the Nepal Medical Association announced that hospitals in Kathmandu Valley will soon have to shut their intensive care, surgeries, and incubation as a result of fuel shortages. Pharmacies in the valley have run out of critical supplies, such as anesthetics and life-saving drugs. Because Nepal is no Germany, it has taken us only a month of blockade to face imminent public health crisis.
Rationing of essentials has allowed price gouging in the market on everything from salt to gas cylinders. Immediately after the blockade, onion prices jumped to over Rs 200 per kg in Kathmandu. The valley's urban poor can no longer afford to purchase gas cylinders. Unequal rationing has also meant thousands of Nepalis queue for hours to buy two liters of petrol while the Rishi Dhamalas walk out of a petrol station with 20 liters of petrol in a public display of "access" and "connection."
Some valley dwellers got innovative, and asked their family members in the Tarai to send them gas cylinders and petrol cans. We saw the risks in that process. For example, in Banke, many died when a bus carrying gas cylinders and petrol cans met with an accident, causing the gas cylinders to explode, which caused the petrol to catch fire and engulf the entire bus. In another case, a taxi driver's family in Kathmandu got trapped and burned to death when an emergency supply of petrol stored indoors caught fire.
It is surprising that international media has been relatively quiet on the blockade. The loudest opposition, in fact, has come from the Indian media. However, many of those penning the opposition pieces are current or ex-Indian Congress leaders and politicians. Their opposition could simply be a case of opposition politics, rather than true concern for their neighbors. After all, it was the Indian Congress government that imposed an economic blockade against Nepal in 1989 by closing the borders. Therefore, the Indian Congress Party's sudden rise in moral authority on the blockade issue is dubious.
The German experience teaches us that a prolonged economic blockade hardens the human spirit and changes people. Scholars have attributed the rise of Nazism and nationalistic policies in Germany to the economic blockade that Germany suffered during the First World War. It is a gross exaggeration to claim that something similar will happen in Nepal. However, there has been a rise in the level of bitterness among Nepalis against India, and some of that is seen even at the top level. A supposedly pro-China politician has been elected the Prime Minister. A known nationalist has been appointed the Foreign Minister and was sent to India to resolve the current mess. The current government has started inquiring China about possibilities of becoming our fuel supplier. These should worry Indian policymakers who certainly agree that Nepal importing all its fuel from China will damage Indian interests—both economic and political. And, then, there is the damage sustained in the cordial relationship between the two people with shared history and culture.
There is a Sanskrit saying: maunam sammati lakshanam. That is, silence means agreement.Western nations that spare no dime lecturing Nepal on human rights and dignity have shamed themselves on this issue. The response, or lack thereof, from the rest of the world indicates that—at the end of the day—economics trumps human rights and dignity. The US government has mentioned in the past that it follows India's lead on Nepal-related issues. The EU nations have made their opposition known but not forcefully. The United Nations has mentioned the fuel crisis and its potential impact on earthquake survivors in the coming winter, but has not acknowledged the blockade. Even China—which has repeatedly informed the Nepali government that it is willing to help out in any way possible—has not called India out on the blockade.
If the Sanskrit saying is true, our international friends are complicit in this blockade. Billions of dollars in trade with India is more vital to them than acknowledging the suffering of Nepalis. The international missions claim to be vanguards for peace and security for all. If they can't perform that role, they don't deserve to be in Nepal, and should be asked to leave. We can start with the UN and the EU.
The following opinion piece was published in Republica on October 28, 2015 with the title "Disturbing Silence." The direct link to the piece is here.
Blockade Politics
By: Mukesh Khanal
These examples show that, in foreign policy, a blockade is a wartime tool. Nepal and India are not at war, and neither is a threat to the other. If India continues the blockade, it will definitely bring Nepal down to its knees. Nobody doubts that. But, why is India using a wartime tactic against Nepal? More importantly, whatever the intended results, does India truly believe that the means justifies the end?
A "blockade" is a very effective tool to instigate suffering, and no country knows this better than Germany, which suffered one of the worst cases of an economic blockade in human history. After the Allies beat Germany in WWI, Britain and France wanted Germany to sign the Treaty of Versailles for immediate peace. To pressure Germany into signing the agreement quickly, the British and the French continued the blockade that they had been imposing on Germany since 1914. Although the war officially ended in November 1918, the blockade continued for eight more months, until July 1919.
Aimed at punishing the national level policymakers, the blockade hurt civilians the most. Germans suffered from malnourishment, rickets, scurvy, tuberculosis, and several other illnesses. The British intelligence reported that in the year 1917, hunger-related typhus was responsible for almost 75 percent of deaths in the city of Dortmund alone. More people died in Germany in the flu epidemic of 1918 than in any other European country. In 1919, reports came out that 10 percent of patients in German hospitals died that year simply because the hospitals could not feed the patients.
Famine during the extra eight months of blockade alone killed 250,000 Germans. The government's rationing system fell apart. So, urban populations suffered from chronic hunger due to unequal rationing of food. Rural self-sufficient farmers fared better than urban citizens. In the urban centers, black markets developed to sell food and essential items at exorbitant prices. Dairy prices were 33 percent higher than the market price, meat's was 50 percent higher, and eggs and fruit's were 1,000 percent higher. While the wealthy and the well-connected in Germany managed to feed themselves, the black market prices killed the urban poor.
The current Indian blockade of Nepal has now reached a point where health-related crises have started. For example, this month, hospitals in Jhapa stopped providing dialysis services to patients due to medicine and equipment shortages, and ICU/NICU services have not operated smoothly due to fuel shortage. Recently, the Nepal Medical Association announced that hospitals in Kathmandu Valley will soon have to shut their intensive care, surgeries, and incubation as a result of fuel shortages. Pharmacies in the valley have run out of critical supplies, such as anesthetics and life-saving drugs. Because Nepal is no Germany, it has taken us only a month of blockade to face imminent public health crisis.
Rationing of essentials has allowed price gouging in the market on everything from salt to gas cylinders. Immediately after the blockade, onion prices jumped to over Rs 200 per kg in Kathmandu. The valley's urban poor can no longer afford to purchase gas cylinders. Unequal rationing has also meant thousands of Nepalis queue for hours to buy two liters of petrol while the Rishi Dhamalas walk out of a petrol station with 20 liters of petrol in a public display of "access" and "connection."
Some valley dwellers got innovative, and asked their family members in the Tarai to send them gas cylinders and petrol cans. We saw the risks in that process. For example, in Banke, many died when a bus carrying gas cylinders and petrol cans met with an accident, causing the gas cylinders to explode, which caused the petrol to catch fire and engulf the entire bus. In another case, a taxi driver's family in Kathmandu got trapped and burned to death when an emergency supply of petrol stored indoors caught fire.
It is surprising that international media has been relatively quiet on the blockade. The loudest opposition, in fact, has come from the Indian media. However, many of those penning the opposition pieces are current or ex-Indian Congress leaders and politicians. Their opposition could simply be a case of opposition politics, rather than true concern for their neighbors. After all, it was the Indian Congress government that imposed an economic blockade against Nepal in 1989 by closing the borders. Therefore, the Indian Congress Party's sudden rise in moral authority on the blockade issue is dubious.
The German experience teaches us that a prolonged economic blockade hardens the human spirit and changes people. Scholars have attributed the rise of Nazism and nationalistic policies in Germany to the economic blockade that Germany suffered during the First World War. It is a gross exaggeration to claim that something similar will happen in Nepal. However, there has been a rise in the level of bitterness among Nepalis against India, and some of that is seen even at the top level. A supposedly pro-China politician has been elected the Prime Minister. A known nationalist has been appointed the Foreign Minister and was sent to India to resolve the current mess. The current government has started inquiring China about possibilities of becoming our fuel supplier. These should worry Indian policymakers who certainly agree that Nepal importing all its fuel from China will damage Indian interests—both economic and political. And, then, there is the damage sustained in the cordial relationship between the two people with shared history and culture.
There is a Sanskrit saying: maunam sammati lakshanam. That is, silence means agreement.Western nations that spare no dime lecturing Nepal on human rights and dignity have shamed themselves on this issue. The response, or lack thereof, from the rest of the world indicates that—at the end of the day—economics trumps human rights and dignity. The US government has mentioned in the past that it follows India's lead on Nepal-related issues. The EU nations have made their opposition known but not forcefully. The United Nations has mentioned the fuel crisis and its potential impact on earthquake survivors in the coming winter, but has not acknowledged the blockade. Even China—which has repeatedly informed the Nepali government that it is willing to help out in any way possible—has not called India out on the blockade.
If the Sanskrit saying is true, our international friends are complicit in this blockade. Billions of dollars in trade with India is more vital to them than acknowledging the suffering of Nepalis. The international missions claim to be vanguards for peace and security for all. If they can't perform that role, they don't deserve to be in Nepal, and should be asked to leave. We can start with the UN and the EU.
Labels: blockade
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